The Post-Convention Bounce in Voters' Preference

1964 - 2020

Democratic			Republican
Year	Convention	Nominee	Bounce %	Convention	Nominee	Bounce %
2020	Aug. 17-20	Joseph Biden	TBD	Aug. 24-27	Donald Trump	TBD
2016	July 25-28	Hillary Clinton	2	July 18-21	Donald Trump	3
2012	Sept. 3-6	Barack Obama	2	Aug. 27-30	Mitt Romney	-1
2008	Aug. 25-28	Barack Obama	4	Sept. 1-4	John McCain	6
2004	July 26-29	John Kerry	-1	Aug 30-Sep 2	George W. Bush	2
2000	Aug. 14-17	Al Gore	8	Jul 31-Aug 3	George W. Bush	8
1996	Aug. 26-29	Bill Clinton	5	Aug. 12-15	Bob Dole	3
1992	July 13-16	Bill Clinton	16	Aug. 17-20	George Bush	5
1988	July 18-21	Mike Dukakis	7	Aug. 15-18	George Bush	6
1984	July 16-19	Walter Mondale	9	Aug. 20-23	Ronald Reagan	4
1980	Aug. 11-14	Jimmy Carter	10	July 14-17	Ronald Reagan	8
1976	July 12-15	Jimmy Carter	9	Aug. 16-19	Gerald Ford	5
1972	July 10-13	George McGovern	0	Aug. 21-23	Richard Nixon	7
1968	Aug. 26-29	Hubert Humphrey	2	Aug. 5-8	Richard Nixon	5
1964	Aug. 24-27	Lyndon Johnson	3	July 13-16	Barry Goldwater	5

Notes

• 2016-2020: Determined by the APP by using Real Clear Politics and 538.com (Nate Silver) poll averages. The average published on the Monday of the convention week and average published the Monday following the convention week were used for comparison, and are rounded to whole integers. These averages include polling that ended the Sunday before the convention began and ending on the Sunday following the convention. Beginning in 2016, Gallup no longer conducts voter preference surveys.
• 2008-2012: Determined by the APP by using poll ending on the Sunday before the convention and poll ending on the Sunday after the convention.
• 1964-2004 data determined by Gallup

Citations

Gerhard Peters. "The Post-Convention Bounce in Voters' Preference." The American Presidency Project. Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters. Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. 1999-2020.