Pool Reports of December 4, 2020

In-town pool report #1 - Kudlow gaggle

Happy Friday, everyone. Your in-house poolers were tested for covid-19, per usual.

National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow gaggled with reporters on the driveway after a pair of TV hits. He spoke about this morning's jobs report, said POTUS "bears responsibility for he pluses and the positives" of the economy, declined to weigh in directly on the bipartisan Senate $908 billion covid relief framework, emphasized POTUS is still critical of additional funding for state and local governments, declined to say whether POTUS would actually veto the defense authorization bill over the Section 230 issues.

Fuller quotes coming shortly.

In-town pool #2 -- Kudlow quotes

Quotes from Kudlow gaggle …

(Where is POTUS when Americans continue to suffer): "Well, look, there's still a lot of suffering out there I agree. But I will also argue the economy has registered a very strong comeback from the peak of the pandemic contraction, including today's jobs numbers with the 6.7% unemployment right now. There's still over 10 million people who are jobless. And that's not good. That is hardship. And by the way, that should be a target with any assistance package. However, at the peak it was -- was 23 million. And now we got 150 American, 150 million Americans working. And that's way up – and the 10 million unemployed is way down. So I like that."

"I want to say also look at terms of these numbers -- I know you're not going to get deep into the numbers -- but you still got a, there's a housing boom going on, consumer spending is strong. There's a lot of business and factory production going on. The ISM and the PMI were nearly 60%, that's a very healthy number, if you look at that."

"My friend, one of Wall Street's top economists Ed Hyman has his Christmas tree index. And that's growing at 29% year on year, a little holiday cheer. So, you know, I think we have much more work to do. I understand that, but I think we've come a long way."

(Where is POTUS, his leadership on this?) "He has spoken out on unemployment." Notes he favors a "targeted assistance" package.

"We're not gonna sell this here, but I would say to you, he has put together a remarkable infrastructure, in just a few months -- six or seven months -- to fight COVID. And it's a global event. I mean, all the countries are having the same problems but I will say this, his Operation Warp Speed, which he developed, led and has produced is on the way."

"And I just say that, help is on the way. Vaccines are a week or two away. We'll get 20 million plus by the end of this month, 40 million by January, and up to 100 million late March, April. That's what the scientists are estimating with these great companies. His operation, we've poured billions of dollars into the vaccines, working with the private sector, and all the brilliant people involved in developing these vaccines. And the President opened that door, Operation Warp Speed, we've done in a handful of months that normally takes 10 years plus. I mean, I agree, I respect that. But I think he's done a tremendous job -- tremendous job on this project."

(POTUS view on the $908B Senate framework: ) "We've always kind of wanted to talk policies not dollars. We'll leave that leadership to Senator McConnell and Speaker Pelosi, they're talking, I would say it has a somewhat more optimistic tone. But the issues here again on policy, there's a couple of key targeted areas that that our team, and the Senate leadership, want. Additions to Small Business PPP, some federal plus-up on unemployment assistance to deal with the hardship that we were discussing a moment ago. Some liability insurance curbs, which would help small businesses, help schools, help local governments. They could all be sued, very hard to trace these COVID breakouts. So those are some of the key points.

"By the way, you've got roughly $600 billion that's unspent to be redeployed and reappropriated …. (so on $908B topline), "I don't want to go there, I'm going to leave that to Senator McConnell and Speaker Pelosi and others, we're in touch daily right now with everybody. That includes the Republican House leader, Kevin McCarthy."

(is it critical that a bill is passed in the lame duck?) "I see no reason why we couldn't have done this last summer, early in the fall, particularly small businesses and unemployment. And I would add to that, I know Senator McConnell is very keen on this, I think he's right. I think some liability insurance reforms would also help small business. Look, we want to keep the schools open. We want to keep the businesses open. And we know of specific targeted programs that would help that. And there's about 600 billion of unspent money. I'm not gonna call it free money, but it really doesn't represent additional spending."

(Does POTUS bear any responsibility for the jobs numbers) "This is one month, six points -- look, go back, take a look at the CBO, and the Federal Reserve, where they had the jobless rate, at year end and early next year. We are at least three percentage points below where those geniuses did. I call that a pretty good thing. And I will say again, the relief package, the bipartisan relief package, very helpful, but also fundamentally, this was a healthy economy, pre-pandemic.

"The basis, the roots of this were full of incentives, the tax cuts the deregulation, better trade deals. And so we're able to withstand this. Take a look at what's doing in Europe, I see contrast. Take a look. And lots of parts of Asia. So does the president bear responsibility? I say the president bears responsibility for the pluses and the positives. And I know it's not common to give him that. But I'm going to make that defense."

(Would POTUS accept state and local aid funding in the bipartisan framework, around $160B) "I will let the legislators work that out. (Will POTUS take any level of state and local since he's been critical) "And he still is. And he still is. He doesn't want to deal with mismanaged states and localities, but I don't want to comment on it because I will leave that to the negotiations."

(How serious is POTUS about vetoing the defense auth bill?) "Well, I will let him speak for himself but he has indicated that he would like to see a liability shield reform with respect to these social media companies. And I happen to agree. They're acting as editors and publishers. There are censorship issues that no one ever intended. Going back to this, this pertains to the 1996 telecom decency bill ,as you know. And it looks to me like in this era of social media, that needs to be reformed, section 230 is the place to reform it. And I'm not going to give you the wording but I'm just saying that liability shield has got to be re-examined, at a minimum.

"Now regarding the defense authorization bill I'm not gonna – the president will make that decision. But I can tell you he continues to very much favor getting rid of this 230, section 230 liability issue.

"Not today" re: any thoughts on the ongoing UK-EU Brexit negotiations.

in-town pool report #3 - lunch lid

Lunch lid called until 1:30 p.m.

in-town pool report #4 - brief Navarro gaggle

Good afternoon from a still-quiet White House.

A couple of us briefly gaggled with Peter Navarro on the driveway on the day's economic news, as well as the ongoing coronavirus relief talks on Capitol Hill.

On what a covid relief package should include: Navarro referenced his WSJ op-ed with CEA chairman Tyler Goodspeed: "The issue you're seeing right now is ,all the good we did in phase three …. in terms of relief to small business, in terms of stimulus checks, in terms of enhanced unemployment benefits are or have lapsed, and we have the danger of America falling, a lot of workers falling into a chasm right now."

"And the argument that we made in that op-ed was, was that we need a fiscal bridge to get us to the point where the vaccine down the road takes hold, and we can get somewhat back to normal but the other thing in that op-ed that's really important is that we're not getting back to normal. It's not going to be 100% normal.

"We have these significant structural changes in our economy that have been brought about by the China virus in key sectors: Entertainment, restaurants, sports, transportation, and when we're having effectively service sector refugees, particularly from our major metropolitan areas, -- which, if you think about it that the CCP virus, the Chinese Communist Party virus hit in the main pillars of our urban areas, right? It's the high rise office buildings. It's the mass transit, and it's the -- it's the concentration of entertainment, restaurants and things like that."

"That's a hat trick that you never want to have. So, the point is that Capitol Hill needs to do its job right now they need to do it quick. They need to stop fiddling around while Rome is burning."

On his views on the $908 billion topline, whether he has a view on it: "No. I mean look, I'm just saying. There's a train wreck coming, folks. Okay? And it's your job to flip the switches so, so that the trains don't hit."

On unemployment compensation: "You can't do the 600 again. I don't think we can get to an agreement on that. One size should not fit all states, and you have obvious cost of living issues, it's a lot cheaper in Maine than California, so you can't give the same size check to each state, that's just, it's just bad economics. And I think the Democrats, understand that as well. If they don't, then they need to."

Disappointed that current discussions don't appear to include stimulus checks, does POTUS want that in there? "I'm not getting involved at the micro level, that's not my job. We got negotiators and things like that."

On today's jobs report: "What I'm seeing now I'm not liking it. Today's unemployment report, it missed its mark, ok? But more importantly it revealed some of these structural underlying issues that we're going to have to deal with."

Concerned that economy is on verge of contraction: "We have in math what's called a second derivative. The first derivative is, is the all the trends that've been moving up for many months now. Okay, very favorable. But they're moving up now at a decreasing rate. That's the second derivative. Right. And when that happens, it's only a matter of time, unless you intervene, that, that the trend flips and you start going in the wrong direction. That's where we're at."

In-town pool report #5 -- lid

At 7:43 p.m., a travel/photo lid was called. Good night, all.