Haley Campaign Press Release - Oh, No Big Deal, Just a Survey Showing Haley Beating Biden, 58 Percent to 42 Percent

By: Jim Geraghty
Read the full story online here

Insert all appropriate caveats: It's only one poll, the margin is probably an outlier, and we don't select presidents through national opinion polls. But the latest Marquette Law School Poll national survey has some absolutely eye-popping numbers in a hypothetical match-up between President Biden and Nikki Haley, currently a distant second in the GOP presidential primary.

A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds former President Donald Trump is the choice of 51 percent of registered voters and President Joe Biden is the choice of 49 percent. Among likely voters, Trump receives 52 percent and Biden 48 percent.

These results include voters who initially said they would vote for someone else or would not vote but were then asked their preference if they had to choose one of the two candidates. In the initial question, 13 percent said "someone else" or that they would not vote. Trump received initial support from 45 percent, and Biden was the initial choice of 42 percent.

The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.

. . . Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, holds a larger lead over Biden than does Trump, with 58 percent of registered voters supporting her and 42 percent supporting Biden.

Fifty-eight percent to 42 percent? A 16-point lead? Are you kidding me? If the popular-vote margin were even half that, Haley would not only win most or all of the big swing states, she would probably either win or be close in a bunch of states where Republicans haven't been close in many cycles — Virginia, Colorado, New Jersey, New Mexico . . .

Numbers like this suggest that the general electorate is exhausted with Biden and begging the Republicans for some normal, non-crazy, non-geriatric, non-Trump option.

But hey, so far, it appears most Republicans aren't interested in a candidate who's a generation younger than Biden and who doesn't scare off suburban soccer moms. Nope, the GOP always has to do things the hard way.