Cruz Campaign Press Release - ICYMI: New Poll Shows Cruz in Top Tier
National Journal's Charlie Cook: "Plus four" to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker
HOUSTON, Texas — National Journal's Charlie Cook wrote about a recent survey conducted by the Cruz campaign's "highly regarded Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research" where it was noted that "[r]ight now, the 'plus four' to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker." Excerpts from the article appear below:
A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field
July 23, 2015
This poll is particularly interesting because unlike surveys conducted by most news organizations, it starts off sampling from a data file of actual registered voters, then screens down those most likely to actually cast their vote in their state primary or caucus.
The poll for the Cruz campaign starts off with a trial heat, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at the top with real likely voters at 17 percent, followed by Trump with 15 percent, well within the 3.5-point margin of error for this survey. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush follows in third with 11 percent, then a two-way tie for fourth between Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson. Next comes Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 6 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 5 percent, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 4 percent. Another 12 percent chose someone else, and 16 percent were undecided (polls of likely voters usually show lower numbers of undecided).
When looking at these ratings it's useful to look at the ratio of favorables to unfavorables. Carson had the best ratio with 7.4 to 1, Rubio and Walker tied at second with 5.5-1 and Cruz fourth at 3.8 to 1. The four with weakest ratios were Huckabee at 2.7-1, Trump and Bush tied with 1.7-1 and finally Paul 1.5-1.
Cruz pollster Chris Wilson looked at the new data through the lens of the Selzer Score, finding Walker at the top with a Selzer Score of 74, followed by Trump with 64.5, Bush third with 63.5 and Cruz fourth with 54, just ahead of Rubio's 53.5. The bottom three were Carson at 46.5, a hair ahead of Huckabee's 46 then Paul rounding out the pack with 37.5.
Obviously many more polls will be coming out and new theories will emerge but this survey, along with others that screen down hard are important to consider. Right now, the "plus four" to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.
Ted Cruz, Cruz Campaign Press Release - ICYMI: New Poll Shows Cruz in Top Tier Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/315165