Election Year Presidential Preferences

Real Clear Politics Average Accuracy Record: 2008-2016

Year Nominees Final Average Election Results Deviation
 
2016 Hillary Clinton 46.8 48.2 +1.4
Donald Trump 43.6 46.2 +2.6
 
2012 Barack Obama 49 51.1 +2
Mitt Romney 48 47.2 -1
 
2008 Barack Obama 52 52.6  -1
John McCain 45 46.0 +1
 

 

The Gallup Poll (1936-2012)

Year Nominees Final Estimate Election Results Deviation
 
2012 Barack Obama 49 51.1 +2
Mitt Romney 50 47.2 -3
 
2008 Barack Obama 55 52.6  -2
John McCain 44 46.0 +2
 
2004 George W. Bush 49 50.7  -2
John F. Kerry 49 48.3 +1
 
2000 George W. Bush 48 47.9   0
Albert Gore, Jr. 46 48.4  -2
Ralph Nader 4   2.7 +1
 
1996 William J. Clinton 52 49.2 +3
Robert Dole 41 40.7  0
H. Ross Perot 7   8.4 -1
 
1992 William J. Clinton 49 43.0 +6
George Bush 37 37.4   0
H. Ross Perot 14 18.9 -5
 
1988 George Bush 56 53.4 +3
Michael Dukakis 44 45.6  -2
 
1984 Ronald Reagan 59 58.8  0
Walter F. Mondale 41 40.6  0
 
1980 Ronald Reagan 47 50.7  -4
Jimmy Carter 44 41.0 +3
John Anderson 8   6.6 +1
 
1976 Jimmy Carter 48 50.1  -2
Gerald Ford 49 48.0 +1
 
1972 Richard Nixon 62 60.7 +1
George McGovern 38 37.5   0
 
1968 Richard Nixon 43 43.4   0
Hubert H. Humphrey 42 42.7  -1
George Wallace 15 13.5 +1
 
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 64 61.1 +3
Barry Goldwater 36 38.5  -3
 
1960 John F. Kennedy 51 49.7 +1
Richard Nixon 49 49.5  -1
 
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 59.5 57.4 +2
Adlai Stevenson 40.5 42.0  -2
 
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 51 55.1  -4
Adlai Stevenson 49 44.4 +5
 
1948 Harry S. Truman 44.5 49.5  -5
Thomas E. Dewey 49.5 45.1  -4
Strom Thurmond 4   2.4 +2
 
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 51.5 53.4  -2
Thomas E. Dewey 48.5 45.9 +3
 
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 52 54.7  -3
Wendell L. Willkie 48 44.8 +3
 
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 55.7 60.8  -5
Alfred M. Landon 44.3 36.5 +8

Citation: Gerhard Peters. "Election Year Presidential Preferences." The American Presidency Project. Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters. Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. 1999-2016. Available from the World Wide Web: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/preferences.php.

Beginning in 2016, Gallup no longer conducts voter preference surveys.