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Press Release - WPA MEMO: Ted Cruz Surging

April 02, 2015

HOUSTON, Texas — A memo from Chris Wilson, Director of Research and Analytics for Cruz for President and CEO of WPA Opinion Research, shows Senator Ted Cruz has seen a strong surge in support since his announcement on March 23rd. Both national numbers and numbers in key states are up as voters engage and seriously assess a Cruz candidacy.

The full text of the memo is below and can also be downloaded here.

POLLING MEMORANDUM

TO: JEFF ROE, CAMPAIGN MANAGER 
FROM: CHRIS WILSON, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AND ANALYTICS, TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT; CEO, WPA OPINION RESEARCH
SUBJECT: PUBLIC POLLING SINCE ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE: APRIL 2, 2015

As we expected, Ted Cruz has seen a surge in support since his announcement on March 23rd. Both national numbers and numbers in key states are up as voters engage and seriously assess a Cruz candidacy.

Recent Public Polling

  • Recent national polling for GOP primary voters shows a strong surge for Senator Cruz following his announcement.
    • The most recent Washington Post-ABC News National poll shows the strength of the Cruz surge as Senator Cruz has vaulted into second place with 13% of the vote.
      • Senator Cruz trails only Bush (20%) and is ahead of Scott Walker (12%) by one point.
    • Nationally, Senator Cruz has gained 11 points in support among GOP Primary Voters garnering 16% of the vote according to a poll conducted March 26th-31st by Public Policy Polling.
      • Senator Cruz has surged into the top tier of candidates and is in a statistical dead-heat with Jeb Bush (16% Cruz vs. 17% Bush) and is within the margin of Walker (20%).
      • Senator Cruz is consolidating the conservative vote; his surge in support has come at the expense of Carson (-8), Walker (-5), and Huckabee (-4).
    • Another recent national poll provides more evidence of Cruz's increased strength as a candidate.
      • A CBS News poll shows that the number of Republicans willing to consider Cruz for president has surged 14 points since his announcement.
      • Willingness to consider Walker has increased only five (5) points and willingness to consider Bush has increased only two (2) points.
  • Early state GOP primary polls show Cruz moving into a tie for the lead in key states.
    • In Nevada, Senator Cruz has gained 12 points in GOP voter support moving into a tie for the lead, garnering 18% of the vote according to a March 27th Gravis Marketing poll.
      • Senator Cruz is now tied with Governor Walker for the lead in the Silver State, both with 18% of the vote.
      • Scott Walker is clearly moving on a different trajectory than Senator Cruz, as the Wisconsin Governor has lost nine (9) points over the same period.
    • In South Carolina, Senator Cruz has gained 11 points in support among GOP Primary Voters and is in a statistical tie for the lead, garnering 13% of the vote according to a poll conducted March 26th-27th by Gravis Marketing.
      • Most impressive about this growth is that the Senator has moved into a statistical tie for the lead in the Palmetto state, as he is within the margin of error of Governors Walker (17%) and Bush (16%).
      • Both Bush and Walker have lost three points.
      • Cruz is the only candidate to experience positive movement over this period.

Conclusion

Senator Ted Cruz's announcement has resulted in very positive movement among Republican primary voters. These are the only surveys released since Senator Cruz announced and are strong examples of the overall growth in support.

Methodology

Washington Post-ABC News

The Post-ABC poll was conducted March 26th-29th among a random national sample of 444 Republicans and GOP leaning independent interviewed by telephone. The margin of error is ±5.5%.

Public Policy Polling

PPP surveyed 316 Republican primary voters from February 20th-22nd. The margin of error for the survey is ±5.5%. PPP also surveyed 443 Republican primary voters from March 26th-31st. The margin of error for the survey is ±4.7%. These surveys were conducted through automated telephone interviews and interviews over the internet to voters who don't have landline phones.

CBS News

This poll was conducted by telephone March 21st-24th among 240 Republicans nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones and interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error for the survey is ±6%.

Gravis Marketing

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random sample telephone survey of 438 Republican Primary voters in Nevada from February 21st-22nd and a random survey of 443 Republican Primary voters in Nevada on March 27th. These polls have a margin of error of ±5%. Gravis Marketing also conducted a random sample telephone survey of 792 registered Republican voters in South Carolina from February 24th-25th and a random sample telephone survey of 899 registered Republican voters from March 26th-27th. These polls have a margin of error of ±3%. The polls were weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

Related Images

Ted Cruz, Press Release - WPA MEMO: Ted Cruz Surging Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/314711

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