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Press Release - WPA MEMO: Ted Cruz firmly in top tier of candidates

April 16, 2015

HOUSTON, Texas — Chris Wilson, Director of Research and Analytics for Cruz for President and CEO of WPA Opinion Research, prepared the following memo on the latest round of national and early state polls showing Senator Cruz firmly in the top tier of candidates only three weeks after announcing his candidacy and with several more announced candidates in the race.

The full text of the memo is below and can also be downloaded here.

TO: JEFF ROE, CAMPAIGN MANAGER 
FROM: CHRIS WILSON, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AND ANALYTICS, TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT; CEO, WPA OPINION RESEARCH
SUBJECT: CRUZ CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTH IN PRIMARY POLLING
DATE: APRIL 16, 2015

The latest round of national and early state polls show Senator Cruz firmly in the top tier of candidates only three weeks after announcing his candidacy and with several more announced candidates in the race.

This polling demonstrates clearly that Republican primary voters are finding the Senator's messages more compelling than those of other candidates who are attempting to play in the same "brackets."

Senator Cruz continues to show strength in national polls.

The increase in support that we saw in national polling of Republicans after Senator Cruz's announcement has been sustained and is reflected in multiple recent national polls.

  • A poll by Monmouth University shows Senator Cruz tied with Scott Walker with 11 percent of the vote, trailing only Jeb Bush at 13%.
  • The most recent Fox News poll shows the Senator among a number of top-tier candidates in a statistical tie for first.
  • A poll in late March from ABC/Washington Post shows similar numbers with the Senator at 12% and Scott Walker at 13%, trailing only Jeb Bush.

This strength is also reflected in polling in key early states.

New Hampshire

The PPP study released this week reveals that Cruz made a considerable move into second place in New Hampshire.

  • Since entering the race Senator Cruz has gained a full twelve points in support. He has gone from just two percent support in a March Suffolk University poll to 14% today in the PPP study.
  • The poll released by Public Policy Polling shows the Senator in second place in New Hampshire with 14% of the vote, trailing only Scott Walker (23%).

Senator Cruz has also done an excellent job of building a positive image in the state as he is now one of only three current or potential candidates who has a majority of likely Republican Primary voters holding a favorable impression of him according to the PPP study.

  • Senator Cruz's favorability has increased to a +24 point net favorable mark (50% favorable v. 26% unfavorable).

South Carolina

The Winthrop study released this week reveals that Cruz is a top contender in South Carolina.

  • Ted Cruz is in third place on the ballot with 8.1% support trailing just Bush (12.7%) and Walker (13.6%).
  • Cruz has the broadest base of support of all candidates among Tea Party supporters (62% would consider voting for him).
    • The candidate with the second best broadest base of support among Tea Party supporters (Huckabee) trails Cruz's support by five points.
  • Cruz has the second best broadest position among Evangelicals in South Carolina (51% would consider voting for him).
    • Cruz only trails former Baptist minister Huckabee with this key South Carolina demographic group.

Methodology

Monmouth University Poll

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from March 30th-April 2nd with a sample of 355 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party. This voter sample has a margin of error of +5.2%.

Fox News

The Fox News Poll was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted via live telephone interviewers March 29th-31st among a random national sample of 379 Republican primary voters. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +5.5%.

Washington Post-ABC News

The Post-ABC poll was conducted March 26th-29th among a random national sample of 444 Republicans and GOP leaning independent interviewed by telephone. The margin of error is ±5.5%.

Public Policy Polling

PPP conducted a survey of 358 Republican primary voters in New Hampshire from April 9th-13th with a margin of error of ±5.2%. These surveys were conducted through automated telephone interviews and interviews over the internet to voters who don't have landline phones.

Suffolk University Poll

This survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted from March 21st-24th. The margin of error for this survey is ±4.4%. This survey was conducted through live telephone interviews on landline (65%) and cell phones (35%).

Ted Cruz, Press Release - WPA MEMO: Ted Cruz firmly in top tier of candidates Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/314838

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