The Post-Convention Bounce in Voters' Preference

1964 - 2016

 

Democratic

Republican

Year Convention Nominee Bounce
%
Convention Nominee Bounce
%
2016 July 25-28 Hillary Clinton 2 July 18-21 Donald Trump 3
2012 Sept. 3-6 Barack Obama 2 Aug. 27-30 Mitt Romney -1
2008 Aug. 25-28 Barack Obama 4 Sept. 1-4 John McCain 6
2004 July 26-29 John Kerry -1 Aug 30-Sep 2 George W. Bush 2
2000 Aug. 14-17 Al Gore 8 Jul 31-Aug 3 George W. Bush 8
1996 Aug. 26-29 Bill Clinton 5 Aug. 12-15 Bob Dole 3
1992 July 13-16 Bill Clinton 16 Aug. 17-20 George Bush 5
1988 July 18-21 Mike Dukakis 7 Aug. 15-18 George Bush 6
1984 July 16-19 Walter Mondale 9 Aug. 20-23 Ronald Reagan 4
1980 Aug. 11-14 Jimmy Carter 10 July 14-17 Ronald Reagan 8
1976 July 12-15 Jimmy Carter 9 Aug. 16-19 Gerald Ford 5
1972 July 10-13 George McGovern 0 Aug. 21-23 Richard Nixon 7
1968 Aug. 26-29 Hubert Humphrey 2 Aug. 5-8 Richard Nixon 5
1964 Aug. 24-27 Lyndon Johnson 3 July 13-16 Barry Goldwater 5
 
• 2016: Calculated by the APP by using Real Clear Politics and 538.com (Nate Silver) poll averages. The average published on the Monday of the convention week and average published the Monday following the convention week were used for comparison, and are rounded to whole integers. These averages include polling that ended the Sunday before the convention began and ending on the Sunday following the convention. Beginning in 2016, Gallup no longer conducts voter preference surveys.
• 2008-2012: Calculated by the APP from Gallup poll ending on the Sunday before the convention and poll ending on the Sunday after the convention.
• 1964-2004 data calculated by Gallup

 

 


Citation: Gerhard Peters. "The Post-Convention Bounce in Voters' Preference." The American Presidency Project. Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters. Santa Barbara, CA: University of California. 1999-2016. Available from the World Wide Web: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/324134