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Campaign Press Release - The V-Shaped Recovery Continues

October 02, 2020

Unemployment has now fallen below 8 percent, continuing to beat expectations

Key Takeaways:

  • September's jobs report shows the Great American Comeback is continuing, and President Trump is the man to lead it
  • In total, the economy has added back more than 11.4 million jobs over the last five months, more than half of all the jobs lost due to the pandemic
  • The unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent, a level that just a few months ago economists said would not happen until the end of next year
  • President Trump has built the strongest economy in U.S. history, he will do it again
  • President Trump's efforts to protect American workers and businesses during the coronavirus epidemic have clearly worked
    • The Paycheck Protection Program has provided more than $521 billion in forgivable loans to over 5 million U.S. businesses, protecting more than 51 million U.S. jobs
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    • 159 million Americans have received a total of $265 billion in coronavirus relief payments, helping those Americans who are out of work or struggling

11.4 Million Jobs Have Been Recovered, More Than Half Of The Jobs Lost Due To The Pandemic

Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 661,000 In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

?Nonfarm Payroll For Women Increased By 286,000 In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

Over The Last Three Months, Job Growth Has Averaged 1.3 Million Each Month. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, 10/2/20)

In The Last 5 Months, The Economy Has Added Back 11.4 Million Jobs, More Than Half Of The Jobs Lost Due To The Pandemic. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

Unemployment Continues To Drop For Women, Black Americans, Hispanic Americans And Asian Americans

The Unemployment Rate Decreased From 8.4 Percent To 7.9 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

The Adult Women's Unemployment Rate Decreased From 8.4 Percent To 7.7 Percent In September.(Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

The Black Unemployment Rate Decreased From 13.0 To 12.1 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

The Hispanic Unemployment Rate Decreased From 10.5 Percent To 10.3 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

The Asian American Unemployment Rate Decreased From 10.7 Percent To 8.9 Percent In September.(Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)

The Unemployment Rate Is Falling Faster Than Experts Predicted

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Projected That The Unemployment Rate For 2021 Would Be 10.1 Percent, And That It Would Only Decrease To 9.5 Percent By The End Of 2021. "The labor market is expected to improve after the third quarter, with a rebound in hiring and a significant reduction in furloughs as the degree of social distancing diminishes—leading to an increase in business activity and an increase in the demand for workers. In particular, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 9.5 percent by the end of 2021. Under that projection, the unemployment rate at the end of 2021 would be about 6 percentage points higher than the rate in CBO's economic projection produced in January 2020, and the labor force would have about 6 million fewer people." (Phill Swagel, "CBO's Current Projections Of Output, Employment, And Interest Rates And A Preliminary Look At Federal Deficits For 2020 And 2021," Congressional Budget Office, 4/24/20)


JPMorgan Projected That The Unemployment Rate Would Only Fall To 10.9 Percent By The End Of 2020. "Economists at the bank now peg their base-case scenario for unemployment at the end of 2020 at 10.9%, up from a prediction of 6.6% when it reported first-quarter earnings. That dimmed outlook comes as earlier-than-expected rehiring during May and June still left 20 million out of work, and as business reopenings are being rolled back in some regions." (Lisa Bellfuss, "What JPMorgan's Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It's Not Great," Barron's, 7/15/20)

  • JPMorgan Predicted Unemployment Would Still Hover Around 8 Percent At The End Of 2021. "More interesting is where JPMorgan sees the U.S. economy at the end of 2021. Unemployment will still hover around 8%, the bank says, and GDP will still contract—a call that contrasts with many other Wall Street firms expecting a return to growth next year." (Lisa Bellfuss, "What JPMorgan's Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It's Not Great," Barron's, 7/15/20)

Goldman Sachs Projected The Unemployment Rate Would Only Fall To 10 Percent At The End Of 2020 And Stay Above 8 Percent Through 2021. "Goldman Sachs expects the unemployment rate to stand around 10% at the end of 2020. For context, that matches the worst levels of the Great Recession. And even by the end of 2021, Goldman Sachs sees unemployment above 8%." (Matt Egan, "Goldman Sachs Issues Warning About US Unemployment," CNN, 5/13/20)

The Federal Reserve Projected Unemployment Would Only Fall To 9.3 Percent By The End Of 2020. "Federal Reserve leaders predict a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, with unemployment falling to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, after tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the stunning recession caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus." (Heather Long, "Federal Reserve Predicts Slow Recovery With Unemployment At 9.3 Percent By End Of 2020," The Washington Post, 6/10/20)


("June 10, 2020: FOMC Projections Materials, Accessible Version," U.S. Federal Reserve, 6/10/20)

The Trump Administration's Actions Have Protected American Businesses And Workers

The Paycheck Protection Program Has Provided $521 Billion To Over 5 Million U.S. Businesses, Protecting A Total Of More Than 51 Million Jobs. ("Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report,"? U.S. Small Business Administration, 7/31/20; "Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report," Small Business Administration, 6/30/20)

There Has Been A Total Of $265 Billion In Coronavirus Relief Payments To 159 Million Americans. (News Release, "Treasury, IRS Deliver 89.5 Million Economic Impact Payments In First Three Weeks, Release State-By-State Economic Impact Payment Figures,"?IRS,?7/17/20)?

Donald J. Trump, Campaign Press Release - The V-Shaped Recovery Continues Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/345727

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