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Campaign Press Release - Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

September 04, 2020

As Americans go back to work in record numbers, voters should ask: why would anyone allow Joe Biden – who oversaw the slowest "recovery" since the Great Depression – to spoil it?

Key Takeaways:

  • The economy added back an incredible 1.4 million jobs in August, the fourth highest one-month job gain in U.S. history
    • In total, the economy has added back 10.6 million jobs over the last four months, nearly half of all the jobs lost due to the pandemic
    • The unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, seeing the second-largest one month decrease in U.S. history
    • President Trump's efforts to protect American workers and businesses during the coronavirus epidemic have clearly worked
  • Experts have consistently and wrongly said such a quick recovery would not happen
    • The Congressional Budget Office projected the unemployment rate would be 16 percent right now, and that unemployment wouldn't fall below 9.5 percent even in 2021
  • The American economy is coming back strong, with today's jobs numbers being the latest good news
  • President Trump has built the strongest economy in U.S. history, and he will do it again
    • Joe Biden would be the worst person to put in charge of the economy, having presided over the worst recovery since the Great Depression as Vice President
    • The economy has recovered 48 percent of the jobs lost due to the coronavirus in the last four months; during Biden's "recovery," it took 27 months to do the same
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    • The 1.4 million jobs added in August is more than twice as many in the best month of Biden's "recovery"

THE ECONOMY IS BOUNCING BACK SWIFTLY

1.4 Million Jobs Were Added Back In August

Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 1.4 Million In August. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

In Total, The Economy Has Added Back 10.6 Million Jobs Back Over The Last Four Months. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

  • 48 Percent Of All Jobs Lost Due To The Coronavirus Have Been Added Back In The Last Four Months. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

The Number Of Unemployed Americans Dropped By 2.8 Million In August, The Second Largest One-Month Decrease In U.S. History. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20; Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

Unemployment Fell Across The Board

The Unemployment Rate Decreased From 10.2 Percent To 8.4 Percent In August. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

The Unemployment Rates For Adult Women, Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, And Veterans All Fell. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20; Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20; Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20; Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20; Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

The Great American Comeback, Better Than The Biden "Recovery"

In The Last Four Months, 48 Percent Of The Jobs Lost During The Pandemic Have Now Been Recovered. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

  • It Took 27 Months For The Same Percentage Of Jobs To Return During The Biden-Led "Recovery." (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

The 1.4 Million Jobs Added Back In August Is 2.5 Times As Large As The Best Month Of Jobs Gains During The Biden "Recovery." (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 9/4/20)

The Trump Administration's Actions Have Protected American Businesses And Workers

The Paycheck Protection Program Has Provided $525 Billion To Over 5.2 Million U.S. Businesses, Protecting A Total Of More Than 51 Million Jobs. ("Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report,"? U.S. Small Business Administration, 8/8/20; "Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report," Small Business Administration, 6/30/20)

The IRS Has Issued A Total Of $265 Billion In Coronavirus Relief Payments To 158 Million Americans. (News Release, "Treasury, IRS Deliver 89.5 Million Economic Impact Payments In First Three Weeks, Release State-By-State Economic Impact Payment Figures,"?IRS,?7/17/20)??

THE ECONOMY IS REBOUNDING TOWARDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

Weekly Jobless Claims Continues To Fall, Beating Expectations

New Filings For U.S. Jobless Claims Was 881,000 For The Last Week In August Which Was "Better Than Estimates." "New filings for jobless claims totaled 881,000 last week, better than estimates as the employment market continued its gradual progress during the coronavirus pandemic recovery." (Jeff Cox, "Weekly Jobless Claims Total 881,000, Better Than Expected As Labor Market Continues To Heal," CNBC, 9/3/20)

New Unemployment Benefits Are At Its Lowest Level Since Mid-March, Before The Pandemic. "The number of new applications for unemployment benefits dipped to 881,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday in an encouraging sign for the economy. Forecasters had projected 950,000 new jobless claims. Instead, claims fell to the lowest level since mid-March, before the pandemic induced mass layoffs." (Jay Heflin, "New Jobless Claims Fall To Lowest Level Since Mid-March," Washington Examiner, 9/3/20)

Jobless Claims Has Been Trending Downward Over The Past Several Months. "The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits fell sharply for the week ended July 25, down more than 3 million to 28.26 million, also pointing to a downward trend in joblessness. A year ago, that number was 1.7 million." (Jeff Cox, "U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall To 963,000, First Time Below 1 Million Since Mid-March," CNBC, 8/13/20)

Manufacturing Has Grown For Four Straight Months

Manufacturing Grew In August According To The Institute Of Supply Management's Manufacturing Index. "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in August, with the overall economy notching a fourth consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: 'The August PMI® registered 56 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from the July reading of 54.2 percent." (Press Release, "PMI at 56.0%; August 2020 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business," Institute For Supply Management, 9/1/20)

  • Manufacturing Activity In August Reached A 19 Month-High. "The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 56.0 last month from 54.2 in July. That was the highest level since January 2019 and marked three straight months of growth." (Luci Mutikani, "U.S. Manufacturing Activity At 19-Month High In August," Reuters, 9/1/20)

The Stock Market Has Rebounded

In August, The S&P 500 Closed At A Record High, "Capping A Remarkable Rebound" And Marking "The Index's Fastest-Ever Recovery From A Bear Market." "The S&P 500 closed at its highest level ever Tuesday, capping a remarkable rebound fueled by unprecedented government stimulus and optimism among investors about the world's ability to manage the coronavirus pandemic. ... The whole chapter, from peak-to-peak, spanned just 126 trading days and marks the index's fastest-ever recovery from a bear market." (Michael Wursthorn, "S&P 500 Sets First Record Since February, Erasing Its Coronavirus Plunge," The Wall Street Journal, 8/18/20)

Earlier This Week, The Nasdaq Achieved A New Record High. (Sinead Carew, "S&P, Nasdaq Close At Record Highs In Tech-Fueled Rally," Reuters, 9/1/20)

Consumer Spending Has Rebounded To Pre-Pandemic Levels

In July, Consumer Spending Rose 1.9 Percent. "Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.9% last month, after jumping 6.2% in June." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending Rises Strongly; Outlook Uncertain As Fiscal Stimulus Fades," Reuters, 8/28/20)

  • "U.S. Consumer Spending Increased More Than Expected In July, Boosting Expectations For A Sharp Rebound In Economic Growth In The Third Quarter..." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending Rises Strongly; Outlook Uncertain As Fiscal Stimulus Fades," Reuters, 8/28/20)

Spending On Goods "Has Rebounded Above Its Pre-Pandemic Level." "Consumers boosted purchases of goods like new motor vehicles. They also lifted spending on healthcare, dining out and hotel and motel accommodation. While spending on goods has rebounded above its pre-pandemic level, outlays on services are about 9.7% from recovery as consumers remain wary of exposure to the coronavirus." (Lucia Mutikani, "U.S. Consumer Spending Rises Strongly; Outlook Uncertain As Fiscal Stimulus Fades," Reuters, 8/28/20)

Retail Sales Have Increased Three Months In A Row

In July, Retail Sales Increased By 1.2 Percent Marking Three Straight Months Of Increased Sales. "U.S. households boosted retail spending 1.2% in July, the third straight monthly increase despite a rise in coronavirus infections, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Retail sales—covering spending at service stations, restaurants, stores, and online—grew briskly in May and June." (Josh Mitchell and Suzanne Kapner, "US July Retail Sales Rose 1.2%," Fox Business, 8/14/20)

Sharp Growth In The Housing Market

Housing Starts In July Rose 22.6 Percent, A Sign Of Growth As Permits Rose "Sharply" For Both Single- And Multifamily Dwellings. "Investors Tuesday brushed aside worries about the nation's continuing struggle to contain the pandemic, focusing instead on signs of strength in the housing and retail sectors. Housing starts in July rose 22.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of nearly 1.5 million, the Commerce Department said. Permits also rose sharply for both single- and multifamily dwellings." (Hamza Shaban and David Lynch, "U.S. Stocks Hit Record High, Ending Shortest Bear Market In History," The Washington Post, 8/18/20)

EXPERTS SAID A COMEBACK THIS QUICK WOULDN'T HAPPEN

In April, The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Projected That The Unemployment Rate For 2021 Would Be 10.1 Percent, And That It Would Only Decrease To 9.5 Percent By The End Of 2021. "The labor market is expected to improve after the third quarter, with a rebound in hiring and a significant reduction in furloughs as the degree of social distancing diminishes—leading to an increase in business activity and an increase in the demand for workers. In particular, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 9.5 percent by the end of 2021. Under that projection, the unemployment rate at the end of 2021 would be about 6 percentage points higher than the rate in CBO's economic projection produced in January 2020, and the labor force would have about 6 million fewer people." (Phill Swagel, "CBO's Current Projections Of Output, Employment, And Interest Rates And A Preliminary Look At Federal Deficits For 2020 And 2021," Congressional Budget Office, 4/24/20)


In July 2020, JPMorgan Estimated That Unemployment Would Not Fall Below 10.9 Percent By The End Of 2020. "Economists at the bank now peg their base-case scenario for unemployment at the end of 2020 at 10.9%, up from a prediction of 6.6% when it reported first-quarter earnings. That dimmed outlook comes as earlier-than-expected rehiring during May and June still left 20 million out of work, and as business reopenings are being rolled back in some regions." (Lisa Bellfuss, "What JPMorgan's Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It's Not Great," Barron's, 7/15/20)

  • JPMorgan Predicted Unemployment Would Still Hover Around 8 Percent "At The End Of 2021." "More interesting is where JPMorgan sees the U.S. economy at the end of 2021. Unemployment will still hover around 8%, the bank says, and GDP will still contract—a call that contrasts with many other Wall Street firms expecting a return to growth next year." (Lisa Bellfuss, "What JPMorgan's Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It's Not Great," Barron's, 7/15/20)

In May 2020, Goldman Sachs Expected The Unemployment Rate To Be 10 Percent At The End Of 2020 And Above 8 Percent At The End Of 2021. "Goldman Sachs expects the unemployment rate to stand around 10% at the end of 2020. For context, that matches the worst levels of the Great Recession. And even by the end of 2021, Goldman Sachs sees unemployment above 8%." (Matt Egan, "Goldman Sachs Issues Warning About US Unemployment," CNN, 5/13/20)

In June 2020, The Federal Reserve Predicted Unemployment Would Only Fall To 9.3 Percent By The End Of 2020. "Federal Reserve leaders predict a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, with unemployment falling to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, after tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the stunning recession caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus." (Heather Long, "Federal Reserve Predicts Slow Recovery With Unemployment At 9.3 Percent By End Of 2020," The Washington Post, 6/10/20; "June 10, 2020: FOMC Projections Materials, Accessible Version," U.S. Federal Reserve, 6/10/20)

Economists, As Compiled By Bloomberg, Expected An Unemployment Rate Of 9.8 Percent In August. "The US economy added back a greater than expected number of payrolls in August and the unemployment rate improved by a larger than anticipated margin, as employers continued to bring back workers as virus-related business disruptions abated. Still, the pace of payroll gains slowed relative to recent months. Here were the main metrics from the Department of Labor's August jobs report released Friday morning, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Change in non-farm payrolls: +1.371 million vs. +1.350 million expected, vs. +1.734 million in July; Unemployment rate: 8.4% vs. 9.8% expected, vs. 10.2% in July; Average hourly earnings, month over month: 0.4% vs. 0.0% expected, +0.1% in July; Average hourly earnings, year over year: 4.7% vs. 4.4% expected, 4.7% in July; Labor force participation rate: 61.7% vs. 61.8% expected, 61.4% in July." (Emily McCormick, "Jobs report: US economy adds 1.371 million payrolls in August, unemployment rate dips to 8.4%," Yahoo Finance, 9/4/20)

Donald J. Trump, Campaign Press Release - Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/345539

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