Cain Campaign Press Release - Iowa Poll: U.S. Debt, Jobs Listed as Leading Conservative Concerns
Article by: DesMoinesRegister.com
There are two reasons why so many Iowa conservatives are willing to turn over the country to either an ex-pizza executive or an ex-venture capitalist: national debt and jobs.
Unlike four years ago, when national security and terrorism were paramount for those likely to attend the GOP caucuses, two broad domestic policy themes overshadow all else, even for the most conservative voters, The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll shows.
"It's both the economy and the deficit, stupid," said pollster J. Ann Selzer, repurposing the refrain from the 1992 Clinton vs. Bush battle.
Asked which one or two issues are the most important for the next president to address, 48 percent of poll respondents say the national debt and government spending. Forty-seven percent say jobs and the economy.
Women and men rank the two issues differently. Women think jobs and the economy are more important (49 percent) than debt and spending (41 percent).
It's the opposite for men, who give higher priority to debt and spending, 53 percent to 45 percent.
Even with about 140,000 troops still in Iraq and Afghanistan, no other topic is seen as close in importance to the top two. And in both instances, retired restaurant executive Herman Cain and Bain Capital founder Mitt Romney have separated themselves from the GOP field in likely caucusgoers' perceptions of their potential effectiveness. They also top the field in overall support, Cain with 23 percent and Romney with 22 percent.
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has spent his whole political career with a megaphone pointed at national debt. Yet he ranks 9 percentage points below Cain and 5 points below Romney in perceived effectiveness on the issue.
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers Oct. 23- 26, before allegations surfaced from three women that Cain sexually harassed them while he was head of the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s.
The poll results demonstrate a potential problem for Romney: On both issues considered priorities in this election, he trails Cain. On jobs and the economy, Cain is preferred over Romney 26 percent to 21 percent. And on national debt, Cain is preferred, 23 percent to 19 percent.
Ann Barker, 63, of Sioux City said Thursday that she has the most confidence in Cain,"even though his 9-9-9 plan is a little far-fetched in some areas." (Cain has proposed replacing the current federal tax system with a 9 percent personal income tax, a 9 percent business tax and a 9 percent national sales tax.)
"He has a way of saying things. He shoots from the hip, and I love that," Barker explained. "The allegations mean absolutely nothing to me. He is saying what I want to hear right now."
Moral issues, such as gay marriage or abortion, rank third in importance among the seven issues tested, followed by tax policy, health care, immigration and global terrorism.
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota leads the field in perceived effectiveness on moral issues. There's no clear winner in the GOP lineup on immigration issues, with five candidates in double digits.
Iowans can expect the candidates to hammer their talking points on their debt-reduction ideas and economic fixes until the Jan. 3 caucuses — to the exclusion of most other topics. Texas Gov. Rick Perry rolled out a flat-tax plan in South Carolina two weeks ago. Bachmann gave an economy speech in Ames Thursday. Romney outlined his deficit reduction ideas in New Hampshire on Friday.
A difficulty for Iowa conservatives in making their choices is that most of the GOP candidates share essentially the same overarching views on the two issues, arguing with equal vigor about the economy and job creation, with variations on the "government should do less harm" theme as the key to growth.
So it comes down to each candidate's messages and credibility — and the caucusgoers' gut reaction to a candidate's personality.
Asked last week what the GOP candidates need to do to distinguish themselves on jobs and debt, several likely caucusgoers said they're looking for details now. The candidates should specify exactly what government regulations need to be eliminated, what changes need to be made to entitlement programs and how the tax system should be reformed.
Joseph Sandvick, 31, an Army combat veteran from Sioux City, said: "I'd like to see them with a concrete, solid plan that could get through Congress rather than just talk."
Jerry Knauss, 59, a Carroll resident who writes computer software, said: "There really isn't anything the president can do about creating jobs. They can get out of the way."
Knauss added: "I'd vote for any one of them, but I'm looking for someone who's going to stand up tall and isn't going to take any crap from anybody."
Here are other take-home messages:
1. Evangelicals are still a bloc to watch
Moral issues are the most important concern for 20 percent of caucusgoers, ranking a distant third after jobs and debt.
But caucuses are relatively low-participation elections. The Republican caucuses might be won by about 40,000 votes.
That's why evangelicals and born-again Christians are such an important bloc.
Catering to this group most directly are Bachmann and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
Bachmann has distinguished herself as most effective in addressing moral issues, leading the field at 19 percent, poll results show. She rates as best on this question among born-again Christians, with 25 percent, and among those who say moral concerns are a top issue, at 24 percent.
But those top ratings haven't been enough to boost her overall support, at 8 percent. Santorum's support lags at 5 percent.
This is an election in which respondents place a premium on business experience, the poll found. Respondents interviewed by the Register say they're looking for a chief executive officer, not a pastor-in-chief.
Roger Hartzler, a retired Fort Dodge resident, said of Bachmann: "Her record shows she's a moral person. I just like the way she took care of all those foster kids. You don't hear any peep about if they're bad. And just the way she talks, I think she's morally superior.
"But I think there's better people on the economy."
2. National security is no longer tops
Findings from a May 2007 Iowa Poll heading into the last caucus cycle showed the predominance of security and foreign policy issues four years ago.
National security was the top issue for likely Republican caucusgoers, rated extremely important or very important to 95 percent.
Terrorism followed at 89 percent. The war in Iraq was at 81 percent.
The economy and jobs ranked seventh in 2007, and national debt tied for 11th.
Today, the focus is on dollars and domestic policy.
Hartzler, who likes Cain best for now but could be persuaded to turn elsewhere, said: "I guess I'm waiting for somebody to wrap it all together. Cain's weak on defense and foreign policy. It was a big step when he said Gingrich would be a good vice president."
3. Where supporters of tea party land
For tea party supporters, the defining issue not surprisingly is the national debt: 52 percent name debt as one of the most important, 43 percent say jobs.
It's the opposite for Republicans who identify themselves as more moderate or liberal: 55 percent say it's jobs, 48 percent the debt.
Almost twice as many tea partiers (32 percent vs. 18 percent) think Cain would be better than Romney on jobs and the economy.
Other groups also think Cain is better on jobs: those who say they are very conservative on social issues or very conservative on fiscal issues, and middle-age caucusgoers. But seniors 65 and older think Romney's the best candidate to fix the economy and create jobs.
Some of the support for Cain is interchangeable with that for Romney.
Cain is currently the top choice for tea party supporter Tom Springhower, 40, of Logan.
Asked why the Georgia Republican leads over Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, Springhower said on Thursday: "I'm really not sure. I just like the way Cain handles himself. ... But Romney's business past has got me thinking he'd be a good one, too."
Herman Cain, Cain Campaign Press Release - Iowa Poll: U.S. Debt, Jobs Listed as Leading Conservative Concerns Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/node/316433