Statement on the Drought.

Note: In his statement, the President referred to Samuel H. Thompson, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation; Louis J. Taber, master of the National Grange; and Clarence E. Huff, president of the National Farmers' Educational and Cooperative Union.

On the same day, the White House released the text of a memorandum on the drought by Secretary of Agriculture Arthur M. Hyde. The memorandum as printed below does not include the maps and tables. A map of the drought area is printed on page 330.

MEMORANDUM ON THE DROUTH SITUATION AS OF AUGUST 1, 1930

THE HUMAN FOOD SUPPLY

Considered in its broader aspects, the 1930 drouth does not present a serious problem of food supply for the nation. The winter wheat crop already harvested is ample. The spring wheat crop, while it has undoubtedly deteriorated perhaps as much as 10 percent during the month of July, should still be nearly equal to domestic food requirements. While the crop of potatoes in the intermediate States is not large, the late crop in commercial sections of the Northern States gives promise of a fair to good yield. The rice crop has not been seriously affected. Most of the acreage of edible beans is outside the drouth area. The winter supply of fresh vegetables from Southern sources will not be planted for some time. The crop of canning tomatoes, while short, is not seriously so. The crop of canning peas has already been harvested and was produced north of the drouth area. The early crop of canning beans was only fair; the late canning bean crop is produced outside the drouth area. Fruit crops are not large, but are not small enough to constitute a shortage, particularly since the California and other Pacific State fruit crops give good promise. However, in the drouth area, the near failure of farm gardens and other crops grown for home food supply for the fall months and winter is causing want and hardship to many individuals.

FEED PRODUCTION FOR LIVESTOCK

The critical aspect of the drouth situation lies in the inadequate production of feed for livestock in certain areas of the country. For the United States the outlook late in July points to a production of about 90 per cent of an average crop of the feed grains--corn, oats, barley, and grain sorghum; about 85 per cent of an average production of hay; or a combined feed production of approximately 88 per cent. For the country as a whole prospective feed supply at this date considered by itself does not appear to be particularly alarming, but is critical in certain areas indicated on the maps attached to this report. A further serious aspect of the situation is the fact that pastures have been unusually short in these areas and are steadily becoming worse and that farmers who did and will produce some feed grain and forage have been compelled to utilize it for summer feeding, thereby depleting their supplies for the coming winter. An analysis by counties indicates that up to the present time the situation has not become critical in the more important livestock-producing areas of the country.

PROBABLE FEED PRODUCTION IN 1930

In constructing the maps attached hereto an allowance for probable deterioration during the month of July on the basis of deterioration in former hot, dry months of July has been made for each State. In making this study there were available maps furnished by the Weather Bureau on the rainfall from March 1 to July 26 as a percentage of normal rainfall. Probable production of feed grains in each State in 1930 has been reduced to a single figure expressed as a percentage of the five-year average, 1924 to 1928. A similar calculation was made for hay and for feed grains and hay combined. Lines have been drawn on the map which indicate in a rough way the areas most seriously affected. The maps indicate the portions of the country on which the production will be short this year. There are only four sections in which it appears that production will be average or better. These are the New England States; a small segment of the South Atlantic Coast; a territory and adjacent portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa; and Arizona. Two sections of the country will apparently have only about 60 percent of an average production if weather conditions should be average subsequent to August 1. These are a part of Montana, and a segment paralleling the Ohio River from Pennsylvania to its junction with the Mississippi, and on down the Mississippi to the Gulf. A somewhat wider band on either side of this segment apparently will have from 60 to 80 per cent of an average production. The balance of the country apparently will fall within the range of 80 to 100 percent.

CONDITION OF PASTURE IN 1930

An interpolation of the condition of pasture, upon which the livestock are normally dependent for a considerable portion of their feed during the summer months, was made in a manner similar to that made for feed grains and hay. The interpolation for August was consolidated with the reported condition figures for June 1 and July 1 to arrive at a composite of pasture conditions for the two-month period of June and July. As might be expected the areas of deficient pasture roughly coincide with the areas of prospective short feed production. In parts of these areas it is doubtful whether the rainfall during the month of August will greatly revive the pastures inasmuch as the pasture plants have been entirely killed out. New seedings of clover and grass have likewise suffered severely and next year's crop of hay and pasture is endangered as a result.

Incomplete returns on condition of pasture as of August 1, which have since become available, indicate pasture to be the lowest on record.

LIVESTOCK NUMBERS IN 1930

The number of livestock in 1930 as a percentage of the five-year average is shown on one of the maps attached. It is noted that for the United States the numbers of 1930 are approximately 5 per cent below average. Only two areas have as many or more than average. These are Montana and Wyoming, where sheep numbers have expanded as a result of the series of comparatively good crop years, and a portion of the North Atlantic States where the number of dairy cows and heifers has been gradually increased. In South Dakota the number of livestock is 10 per cent below average, largely because of a series of relatively poor crop years. In the central Corn Belt, from Ohio to Missouri, livestock numbers are approximately 8 per cent below average, due largely to a decrease in the hog numbers. Elsewhere livestock numbers are below average by a small percentage except in isolated cases, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Nevada, Louisiana, and Florida. Of these States only Nevada is an important livestock-producing State.

THE RELATION OF LIVESTOCK NUMBERS TO PROSPECTIVE PRODUCTION AND PASTURE

The coincidence of relatively high livestock numbers and low feed production in the Montana-Wyoming area and in some of the Middle Atlantic States indicates the probability of some liquidation of sheep and cattle in the former area and dairy cattle in the latter. The extremely low probable feed production coinciding with only moderate declines in livestock numbers in the Ohio-Mississippi River Valley drouth area, indicates the probability of distress marketing which will probably take the form of culling dairy herds and sheep flocks and the early marketing of hogs, accompanied by the failure to take the usual numbers of stocker and feeder cattle. There is a possibility that South Dakota, Nebraska, and adjacent portions of Minnesota, Kansas, and Iowa, will be in position to take some extra stocker and feeder cattle. Elsewhere the marketing of cattle, hogs, and sheep will be influenced by price changes in meat animals, feed grains, and dairy products.

COUNTIES WHICH APPEAR ON AUGUST I TO BE MOST SEVERELY AFFECTED BY DROUTH

CONDITIONS

An attempt has been made to define more precisely the limits of the distress areas. Preliminary returns to the Crop Reporting Board on the condition of corn as of August 1 have been utilized as an index of the situation. The counties included are those in which it appears that less than half a crop of corn can be expected in 1930, and in which pasture conditions are also extremely poor at the present time. Tables are attached showing the number of farms, the farm population, and the numbers of livestock by classes on the farms in these counties as shown by the 1925 Census. Since the January 1 data do not include the spring crops of pigs, calves, and lambs, a rough approximation has been made of the population of livestock on a July 1 basis in 1930. On the assumption that the January 1, 1925 figures indicate fairly well the percentages of the States' total of each class of livestock in the drouth stricken counties, calculation of the present population of each class in these counties has been made.

COMMENTS BY STATES

Ohio. Embraced in the drouth area in Ohio are an important sheep and wool producing area, a considerable hog-producing area, and a rather extensive dairy and beef cattle area. Consideration of the tables will indicate that some of the counties are not particularly populous in livestock numbers. The more important livestock-producing sections of the State lie outside this area. In some of the counties a considerable portion of the farm population secures a part of its living from other pursuits, such as coal-mining. In those same areas, however, the inhabitants of the small farms place considerable dependence for food sup, plies upon farm gardens and other food crops. Comments reaching the Department at the present time indicate that the water supply for watering livestock and even for human use has become a serious problem.

Indiana. The more northern counties of the drouth-stricken area in Indiana are fairly important in the production of hogs, beef, and dairy cattle. There are no important sheep producing areas in this section. Just as in the case of Ohio a considerable number of farmers are engaged in other pursuits and depend upon home gardens and other food crops for some of their living.

Illinois. The portion of Illinois covered by the drouth is not an important livestock-producing region. A considerable number of persons listed as farmers secure part of their livelihood from coal-mining and other similar occupations but are also dependent to some extent for food supplies upon home gardens and similar crops.

West Virginia. Practically the whole of West Virginia is involved in the drouth stricken area. This is a State of small farms; there are a few scattered sections important in livestock production, but the State as a whole is not important in the production of livestock. An important commercial apple-producing section is included in the drouth area. Industrial pursuits form a source of cash income to many farmers in this territory but all of them are dependent to some extent upon their home gardens and their home-grown products for their food supplies. Comments received by the Department indicate that actual want will develop in some portions.

Virginia. The drouth area in Virginia includes many of the counties of the State which are important in beef and sheep production, and also the important commercial apple section.

Maryland. The important counties engaged in dairying are included in the drouth area, as are also several important tomato-producing counties.

Kentucky. Much of the State of Kentucky is included in the drouth-stricken area. A very important sheep-producing area is included and also important dairy and beef cattle sections. A very large acreage of tobacco is included. While the crop has been severely retarded by the drouth, it still offers some promise of cash income to farmers. At the present time the harvesting of tobacco is under way in some sections, where normally harvesting does not begin until the third week of the month.

Tennessee. The drouth area in Tennessee includes part of the Tennessee early lamb section, from which the lamb crop of 1930 has already been moved. It includes also much of the important tobacco-producing section of the State, from which farmers will undoubtedly secure a considerable cash income this year. Practically all of the Tennessee cotton acreage is included in this area. Cotton is known to be an extremely drouth-resistant plant and a fair yield of cotton may be made in the cotton area of Tennessee.

Missouri. The drouth area in Missouri covers a larger area of diversified farming than in any other State. It embraces areas important in the production of wheat and corn, the production of dairy cattle, beef cattle, and hogs, and in the finishing of feeder cattle for the market. In the southeastern part of the State where cotton is an important crop, there is still opportunity for farmers to realize some income from that crop

Arkansas. Practically all of the State of Arkansas is embraced in the drouth-stricken area, but no considerable area of this State is important in the production of livestock. The main source of income over much of the territory is the cotton crop, from which farmers may still realize a considerable income in 1930. The peach crop was practically a failure and the important cash crop, strawberries, was very short. There is a tomato-growing section in the Ozarks which has been adversely affected. This is a section where considerable reliance is placed upon farm gardens and other crops for home food supplies.

Oklahoma. The area in Oklahoma affected by the drouth is relatively unimportant from an agricultural standpoint.

Mississippi. Mississippi is relatively unimportant in the production of livestock. The drouth has been most severe in the area where much of the land is devoted to the cultivation of cotton. While the drouth has affected this crop, there is still opportunity for the farmers to secure fair yields.

Louisiana. Livestock production is not an important industry in the drouth stricken area of Louisiana. The rice-producing section is included in the area but the rice crop is grown under irrigation. In some cases irrigation water has been running short and there are also reports of seepage of salt water which may reduce yields. Cotton is the predominant crop in portions of the drouth-stricken areas and there is still opportunity for fair yields.

Alabama. The drouth affected section of this State is not important in livestock production. Cotton is the predominating crop. Winter vegetables are also important but the crop for 1930 has long since moved from this territory. Peanuts are an important crop and there is still opportunity for a fair yield.

A large number of telegrams have been sent to Extension Directors, field representatives of the Bureau of Animal Industry, and representatives of livestock shipping associations to secure additional information concerning the situation in various areas, particularly with reference to the supply of feed for livestock and the probabilities of forced liquidation of livestock because of shortage of feed.
ARTHUR M. HYDE
Secretary of Agriculture.