Special Message to the Congress on Discontinuing the Selective Service.

To the Congress of the United States:

The Selective Service and Training Act will expire on March 31, 1947. The only assured way of maintaining the Army and the Navy at their required strengths during the Fiscal Year 1948 is through resort to Selective Service. I have decided, however, after most careful consideration and consultation with the Secretary of War and the Secretary of the Navy, and with the earnest desire of placing our Army and Navy on an entirely volunteer basis at the earliest possible moment, that I should not recommend an extension of the Act at this time. In order that my position may be better understood, the following facts are submitted.

The strength of the Army, including the Air Forces, must be maintained throughout the next fiscal year at 1,070,000 and the Navy, including the Marine Corps, must be maintained at a strength of 571,000 if this nation is to have reasonable assurance of security. These requirements are absolute, and we must not divest the War and Navy Departments of the means of meeting any material shortages.

Personnel losses from the Army through separation during fiscal year 1948 can be computed with a reasonable degree of accuracy. They will reach a total of 360,000, or an average of 30,000 per month. Gains, on the other hand, cannot be so accurately determined. A recruiting campaign for volunteers for the Army was initiated in September, 1945, but shortages in recruiting have heretofore forced the War Department to fill the gap through Selective Service. The last two months of 1946 provided an average of 18,000 recruits per month. During January 1947, however, they rose to some 35,000 enlistments and during the first two weeks of February were about 13,000. Giving weight to the fact that past records prove January to be the best recruiting month of the year, it is estimated by the War Department that if present efforts to obtain volunteers are continued, it can count with a fair degree of certainty on an average of 20,000 enlistments and re-enlistments per month during the coming fiscal year. If only 20,000 recruits per month are obtained, the deficit in required strength will be about 120,000 by July 1, 1948. However, there is a reasonable expectation that better results may be obtained.

The War Department is now engaged in reducing the Army to the strength of 1,070,000, on June 30, 1947, provided for in the budget. In effecting this reduction, it will shortly direct the discharge of all nonvolunteers.

The Navy Department is also reducing the Navy to the strength provided for in the budget for the next fiscal year. To maintain an average strength of 571,000 during the fiscal year 1948, the Navy will require approximately 150,000 recruits. Without the incentive of Selective Service, it is not certain that this number of recruits can be obtained.

The Army and the Navy are still reducing their forces and the Army is not using inductees for the full term the law allows; consequently, an extension of Selective Service at this time would be solely on the basis of predicted shortages during the next year. With a recent brightening in recruiting prospects, this appears to be the logical time to shoulder the risks involved.

Therefore, I recommend that no extension of Selective Service at this time be made, but with the understanding that:

First, the War and Navy Departments will request the re-enactment of a Selective Service Act at a later date if they are unable to maintain the Army at a strength of 1,070,000 men and the Navy at a strength of 571,000 through voluntary enlistments.

Second, the Army and Navy be authorized from appropriated funds to employ temporarily the necessary civilian personnel over and above those specifically authorized and appropriated for by the Congress to the extent necessary to balance any shortage of enlisted personnel when strength may fall below the required levels.

The efforts of the War Department to reach the desired goal of an entirely volunteer Regular Army are worthy of the maximum support on the part of the Administration, the Congress and the people.

HARRY S. TRUMAN